Forecasting….

My blogs are a bit like buses: you wait for ages and then 3 come along at once….

One thing that really gets me wound up is spurious market forecasts. Now I’m not so naive that I expect the market place (i.e. you guys) to make too much distinction about the quality of JupiterResearch market forecasts versus our competitors. However, for the record, we put in a huge amount of effort into ours in order to ensure that they are as accurate as possible. A forecast model will typically take about 3 months to build from inception, through research, modeling to final vetting and publishing, and the majority of the work is done by forecasting professionals within our stand alone Data Research Group. Our aim is to provide accurate assessments of market opportunity for our clients, not to hype a market. We’re not cheerleaders of technology.

So this is why I get furious when I see really poor forecasts in the public domain, because it undermines the credibility of all market forecasts. One in particular particularly frustrated me this week, claiming an astronomically high forecast for European Mobile Music Downloads. The number was well over half the size of the size of the total current European music market (i.e. CDs and EVERYTHING else). Which suggests either massive optimism or that the forecasters didn’t consider the size of the total European music market.

When we build our forecasts we do so with constant reference to ‘real world’ indicators, like total offline markets, per capita spending, GDP etc.

So, I aplogize on behalf of the research industry if you do see lots of crazy forecasts doing the rounds at Midem and 3GSM but if you want a dose of realism then be sure to check in at www.jupitrresearch.com!!