Scratching Beneath the Surface of Another Apple Milestone

Apple have announced that they passed 200 million downloads in European iTunes Music Stores. This is a pretty impressive number and actually just 3 million below the 203 million that Jupiter had internally forecasted they would reach by August. However, despite its impressive scale the 200 million indicates that Apple have actually been selling at a relatively flat rate of a little over 11 million a month since December 2005, when they had hit 110 million. And, more pertinently, the rate of growth is lower than the over 13 million monthly downloads they had between September and December 2005. There is of course a lot of seasonality involved there, so not too much should be read into the decline. However the key take away here is that despite Apple being the dominant European digital music store, growth is solid rather than astronomic. Which partially justifies Jupiterís conservative stance on the prospects of digital music: we donít think that the CD is about to disappear under a wave of downloading. Also, on a global basis, the ratio between the installed base of iPods and total iTunes tracks downloaded is now a fifth lower than at the start of 2005. Which illustrates the hierarchy of importance between the iPod and the digital music market.

So if Apple, the key (single) driver of the market, has these metrics, just try to imagine where the European digital music market would be without them?

If you are a Jupiter client and would like some more detail on these numbers then you an set up an inquiry call via your Client Services Manager.