This is not a blip

When change happens it often takes the perspective of looking back years, or even decades, later to appreciate just how meaningful that change was. Other times, it happens so fast that it can be difficult to appreciate its magnitude because people become desensitised to the perpetual torrent of bad news. It is the latter situation in which we find ourselves now. What appears to be a succession of unrelated events (war, political crisis, climate change, inflation, etc.) are actually all indicators of a wider and connected wave of change that is going to reshape the world. And not just for a matter of months, but for a generation, perhaps more. It is tempting to think that the entertainment and consumer tech industries are, at the very least, insulated. But they are not.

First, let us look at all of the main components of the change and disruption:

In normal times, we might be facing one of these challenges, but now we face all of them with cumulative and interconnected effect. The result will most likely not just be a blip that lasts for a year, but, instead, what will be a realignment of the global economy, and that is without even considering the dramatic changes to the global geo-political situation with  Ukraine and Taiwan.

It is difficult for any of us to properly grasp how all of these changes will reshape the world, because the combination of factors is unprecedented in modern times (particularly because of climate change), which means that no one alive has experienced this before, and so all our reference points have limited use.

Even though the entertainment economy pales in importance compared to most of these factors, it will, nonetheless, be shaped by it, with the attention recession adding further spice. Subscriber declines and slowdowns will likely be a near-term impact, but the longer-term shifts will be more meaningful. This could manifest in a multitude of different ways, such as the rise of bundles (e.g., Apple One, Amazon Prime, Google One and Play Pass); the growth of the creator economy; and the long-term rise of ad supported and integration of ads into subscriptions, such as Netflix and Disney+.

Might consumers turn more to entertainment as times get tough? Sure. Might they start engaging more with digital entertainment because they cannot afford to go out as much anymore? Yes. But whatever direction(s) the entertainment market goes, two things are clear: 1) change is coming, 2) the companies that do best will be those that are willing to embrace and drive change.Whatever direction(s) the entertainment market goes, two things are clear: 1) change is coming, 2) the companies that do best will be those that are willing to embrace and drive change.

As the traditional Chinese curse goes “may you live in interesting times”.

5 thoughts on “This is not a blip

  1. Pingback: This is not a blip – webasite

  2. Pingback: This is not a blip | Music Industry Blog - Music Industry Blog - Simple Blogging System

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  4. Pingback: This is not a blip | Music Industry Blog – Music Industry Blog – TONE

  5. Pingback: Random music news for Wednesday, August 31, 2022 - Alan Cross

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