Did independents really do three times worse than the majors in 2021?

Today, the IFPI released its estimates for the global recorded music market, with reported revenues of $25.9 billion. Last year, the IFPI estimated global revenues to be $21.6 billion (note that the IFPI retrospectively changes its historical figures every year, but you can see its actual 2020 figure here), which implies a growth rate of 20% (18.5% against the IFPI’s rebased 2020 figure of $16.9 billion). The IFPI estimate is significantly below MIDiA’s figure of $28.8 billion – but before getting into the reasons for the differences*, it is worth diving into just what the IFPI’s $25.9 billion figure implies for the size and performance of independent sector.

The major labels’ combined revenue in 2020 was $15.2 billion, and in 2021 it was $18.7bn, representing 25% annual growth. If you simply deduct those figures from the IFPI figures you end up with an implied independent figure of $6.5bn for 2020 and $7.0 billion for 2021. Here is where things start to get interesting. The implied indie growth rate is therefore just 9%, i.e., indies (according to the IFPI) grew three times more slowly than the majors, with implied market share dropping from 30% to 27%. Everything that MIDiA has been hearing from the market suggests that 2021 was actually a strong year for the non-majors. Indeed, Believe just reported a 31% growth, while the ‘label’ portions of HYBE’s revenues increased by 29% (though, not all of that growth was organic). If we remove the revenues of those two labels from the IFPI’s implied indies figure, the remainder of independents would have grown by just 4% in 2021.

To take this line of thought a step further, if we additionally remove the artists direct (i.e., self-releasing artists, which grew by 30%) revenue from the IFPI’s implied indie segment, the growth drops to minus three percent. Even accounting for bigger, older independent labels that did not fare so well in 2021, a -3% growth does not feel like a reflection of an otherwise vibrant sector.

One key reason for the growth and values looking smaller in the IFPI’s figures is that they may not include non-DSP revenue (TikTok, Meta etc), which MIDiA pegged at $1.5 billion in 2021. The IFPI reported all streaming revenues as $16.9 billion which is in line with MIDiA’s $17.0 billion for DSP-only streaming. It is worth noting that majors have around 65% market share on DSP streaming. If the IFPI’s streaming figures do include non-DSP, the implied market share for majors would be 74% (total major label streaming revenue was $12.6 billion in 2021).

Numbers are important, as they are what enable people to understand how markets are performing and what decisions to make. MIDiA’s overriding objective is always to provide the most comprehensive and authoritative data as possible, in an entirely agenda-free way. We have no intention nor objective to make the market look any bigger than we think it actually is. In fact, MIDiA has a well-earned reputation for being on the bearish side of market sizing and forecasts. Nonetheless, this year, our work has led us to the viewpoint that 2021 was a great year right across the recorded music market, with majors and indies alike finding success in a rejuvenated marketplace. And long may that continue.

*The main distinctions between MIDiA’s revenue figures and the IFPI’s are the following:

  • MIDiA includes all reported major label revenue
  • MIDiA includes the masters side of music production music libraries (including royalty free)
  • MIDiA includes a portion of D2C independent artist and label revenue that does not get tracked via traditional tracking methods
  • MIDiA includes some independent label revenue that does not get tracked via traditional tracking methods

NOTE: a previous version of this post had incorrectly stated non-majors have around 65% share on DSP streaming. It now reads ‘majors’

Recorded music market shares 2021 – Red letter year

We suggested back in 2020, that 2021 was going to be a strong year for the recorded music market. As it turns out, 2021 was the fastest growing year in living memory, with growth across most formats, contrasting strongly with 2020 when streaming was the only growth segment. 

After 2020 was constrained by the global pandemic, the global recorded music market rocketed into stellar growth in 2021, growing by 24.7% to reach $28.8 billion (the largest annual growth in modern times). 2020 growth was a much more modest (7%), but this reflected the suppressing effect of the global pandemic in the first half of the year.

2021 was a big year for the music business, with a record amount spent on music catalogue acquisitions and IPOs for Warner Music Group (WMG), Universal Music Group (UMG) and Believe Digital. These developments turned out to be the symptoms of a surge in global market growth, with recorded music revenues. 

Streaming revenues reached $18.5 billion, up by 29.3% from 2020, adding $4.2 billion – also a record increase. One of the key drivers of streaming growth was non-DSP revenue, representing deals with the likes of Meta, TikTok, Snap, Peloton and Twitch. Non-DSP streaming recorded music revenue totalled $1.5 billion in 2021, a massive uplift from 2020. DSP streaming (Spotify, Apple Music, Amazon Music, YouTube Music, etc.) also grew strongly too, reaching $17 billion. 

UMG remained the biggest label, with $8.2 billion, giving it a market share of just under 29%. However, for the second successive year, Sony Music Group (SMG) was the fastest growing major, and it increased its market share by growing significantly faster than the total market. For the first time since 2017, the major labels did not see their collective market share decrease.

Independents also had a good year, with strong growth across both larger and smaller labels. But it was, once again, artists direct (i.e., self-releasing artists) who were the big winners, driving $1.5 billion of revenue and increasing market share to 5.3%. They also added more revenue than in the prior year, something the segment has done every year since 2015. However, because 2021 was characterised by all segments performing strongly, artists direct’s increase in market share was smaller than in previous years.

The concept of evenly distributed growth was also reflected across geographies and formats, with physical and other (i.e., performance and sync) all growing strongly. Physical growth was so strong that revenues surpassed 2018 levels.

The recorded music market looked vulnerable in 2020, relying entirely on streaming for growth, with the outlook inextricably tied to that of DSPs. 2021 was a very different story, with growth on most fronts, but, most importantly, the rise of non-DSP revenue, reflecting an increasingly diversified future in which labels can fret a little less about the prospect of slowing subscriber growth in mature markets. When coupled with longer-term growth opportunities (NFTs, the metaverse, etc), the outlook is positively rosy. Although 2021 was boosted by exceptional circumstances (e.g., the wider economy rebalancing after the Covid-depressed 2020, and much of the non-DSP income being in the form of one-off payments), annual growth of 24.7%, points to the emergence of a new era for an increasingly diversified recorded music business.

The full report and dataset (with quarterly revenue by segment and format going back to Q1 2015) is available here. If you are not a MIDiA client and would like to learn how to get access to our research, data and analysis, email stephen@midiaresearch.com

Music market shares: independent labels and artists are even bigger than you thought

It has been a long time since the music industry has been in such good shape. So long, in fact, that there are not too many executives left who worked through the pre-crash days. 2021 was the year in which the major label groups capitalised on the momentum, with Universal and Warner going public, and Sony going on a spending spree. This was off the back of a strong 2020, in which the majors collectively generated $15.1 billion, giving them a market share of 66.1%. So far, so normal, but all is not quite as it seems. This market share may be how the world sees the majors’ success, but it significantly underplays the revenue contribution of independents. MIDiA decided to fix that.

At the start of this year MIDiA fielded a large-scale, global survey of independent labels, collecting billions of dollars’ worth of revenue figures. We think that it is the most comprehensive survey of the independent sector done yet. In the survey, we asked labels about a range of factors, which enabled us to paint a complete picture of the state of the independent sector in today’s music business. Crucially, we collected detailed data on distributors, and this is where the under reporting of independents comes into play.

The undoubted benefit of the streaming era is that it presents artists and labels of all sizes with the ability to reach global audiences. But most independent record labels do not have sufficient scale nor resources to license and distribute directly to streaming services, and thus turn to the ever-expanding marketplace of digital distributors. Never shy to an opportunity, the major record labels have established themselves as key players in this space, distributing independent labels either directly or via their distribution arms. The value that they deliver to independents is clear, but the revenue goes via the majors’ accounts, and so major label revenues are boosted by independent revenue, thus inflating the market share of the majors. With the data we tracked in our independent label survey, we were able to unpack this ‘embedded’ distributed independent label revenue from the majors’ total to arrive at the ‘actual’ market share of independents, based on who holds the copyright, not simply on who distributes it.

Measuring market share on this ‘ownership’ basis, independent market share (which includes artists direct) goes from 33.9% (the ‘distribution’ basis) to 43.1%, i.e., an additional 9.2% of share. Or, put another way, an addition of $2.1 billion. The independent share was up from 41.3% in 2018, and in 2020, independent revenue (on an ‘ownership’ basis) grew by 12% compared to a total recorded music market growth of 12%. All of which means that independents (labels and artists) are a) bigger than standard industry measures suggest, and b) growing faster than the total market and are thus increasing market share. Which makes the majors’ strategy even smarter. If they were not so active distributors of independents, they would simply be ceding all of the revenue, instead of, as they are, capturing some it and being able to report the market share as their own.

These findings and much more (including regional market data and data on label operations (e.g., A+R, marketing, catalogue size, years in operation)), are available to MIDiA clients in this full report.

All independent labels that took part in the survey have already received a copy of the report. If you want a copy of next year’s edition, be sure to take part in the next survey when we announce it!

IFPI confirms global recorded music revenue growth

Last week MIDiA reported that recorded music revenues grew by 7% in 2020. Today the IFPI confirmed that figure, reporting 7.4% growth. (Similarly, the IFPI reported 19.9% growth for streaming, MIDiA had 19.6%). Given that the majors’ total revenues collectively grew by just 5.5% in 2020, this means that even by the IFPI’s reporting the majors lost market share, driven largely by the continued rapid growth of the ‘artists direct’ segment and also the similarly stellar growth of smaller, newer independent labels. Whichever measure you use, the recorded music market is transforming at pace.

There was one big difference between the IFPI and MIDiA figures. MIDiA’s figure for 2020 is $23.1 billion while the IFPI’s estimate is $21.6 billion. The gap between the IFPI’s and MIDiA’s figures is steadily widening each year, in large part because of the way in which the market is changing. The traditional market, which is of course the easiest to measure, is being out accelerated by an increasingly diverse mix of non-traditional revenue streams. MIDiA has spent the last few years putting considerable resources into measuring these emerging sectors. These include the music production library sector, of which the revenues do not flow through any of the channels that traditional music industry trade associations track. You have to go direct to company financials, ad agencies and sync companies to collect this data, which MIDiA spent a lot of months doing. The recordings side of that sector alone was worth the best part of half a billion in 2020. 

The long tail of independents is the other key area of variance, which is why MIDiA fielded a survey of independent labels to capture the revenue of independents of all ages, regions and revenue sources. This gave us an unrivalled view of just how much the independent sector was growing and its contribution to global revenues. 

Direct to consumer has also been a growth sector and one which access to the data is limited for traditional trade associations. During the pandemic impacted 2020, direct to consumer became a lifeline for many smaller labels and independent artists. MIDiA was able to size this sector through the independent label survey, an independent artist survey and data collected directly from platforms.

The key takeaway from all of this is: change. The industry is changing and in turn it is becoming more difficult to measure. There is also a host of additional challenges to how anyone measures the market in the future. For example, Bandcamp did $100 million of merch and live streaming revenue in 2020 and even though total Bandcamp revenues went up, recorded music income growth ground to a near halt. It turns out that aficionado indie kids only have so much disposable ‘fandom’ spending. As more platforms aim to monetise fandom, whether that be subscriptions on Twitch or NFTs, more music consumer spending will shift from traditional recorded music to derivative formats. The old distinction between merch and recorded may become counter-productive when trying to size the music business.

But these are all quality problems to have. The recorded music business grew in a year when the live music business was decimated. It was a rare beacon of hope when the world was falling apart. And as MIDiA’s recorded music market figures revealed, global Q4 revenues were up 15% year-on-year. The recorded music business weathered its fiercest storm in 2020 and entered 2021 in fighting shape. 

Recorded music revenues hit $23.1 billion in 2020, with artists direct the winners – again

The global pandemic caused widespread disruption to the music business, in particular decimating the live business and impacting publisher public performance royalties. Although the recorded music business experienced a dip in the earlier months of the pandemic, the remainder of the year saw industry revenue rebound, making it the sixth successive year of growth. Global recorded music revenues grew 7% in 2020 to reach $23.1 billion in record label trade revenue terms. The growth rate was significantly below the 11% increases seen in both 2018 and 2019, and the annual revenue increase was just $1.5 billion, compared to $2.1 billion in 2019. These metrics reflect the dampening effect of the pandemic. Global revenue was down 3% in Q2 2020 compared to one year earlier, but up to 15% growth in Q4 2020, suggesting a strong 2021 may lie ahead if that momentum continues.

Streaming growth driven by independents (labels and artists)

Streaming revenues reached $14.2 billion, up 19.6% from 2019, adding $2.3 billion, up from the $2.2 billion added in 2019. So, 2020 was another year of accelerating streaming growth and, given that Spotify’s revenue growth increased by less in 2020 than 2019, this indicates that it is for the first time meaningfully under-performing in the market, due to the rise of local players in emerging markets and strong growth for YouTube. For the first time, the major labels under-performed in the streaming market – but not all majors were affected in the same way. Sony Music Entertainment (SME) was entirely in line with streaming market growth, Universal Music Group (UMG) slightly below and Warner Music Group (WMG) markedly below. Independent labels and artists direct both strongly overperformed in the market, collectively growing at 27% and thus increasing their combined streaming market share to 31.5%.

Market share shifts

The major record labels saw collective market share fall from 66.5% in 2019 to 65.5% in 2020. While this shift is part of a long-term market dynamic, most of the dip was down to WMG reporting flat revenues for the year. SME gained share and UMG remained the largest record label with 29.2% market share. Independent labels also saw a 0.1 point drop in market share, but there was a very mixed story for independents. MIDiA fielded a global survey of independent labels and the data from that helped us track the contribution of independents. Independent labels as a whole grew by 6.7% (i.e. slightly below the market), but within the sector there was a massive diversity of growth rates, with smaller, newer indies tending to grow faster than the market (some dramatically so) and larger, more established indies growing below the market rate. There were also many independents (of all sizes) that saw revenues fall in 2020.

The unstoppable rise of independent artists

In 2019, artists direct were the stand-out success story, massively outperforming the market. History repeated itself in 2020 with artists direct growing by a staggering 34.1% to break the billion-dollar market for the first time, ending the year on $1.2 billion and in the process increasing market share by more than a whole point, up to 5.1% in 2020. The continued rise of independent artists reflects the clear and pronounced market shift towards this new, emerging generation of artists. With lots of private equity money now pouring into creator tools companies like Native Instruments, expect this space to heat up even further in 2021. The recorded music business is changing, and it is changing fast.

Smaller independents and artists direct grew fastest in 2020

Last year we identified a small but crucial metric from Spotify’s annual report: the share of all streams accounted for by majors and independent licensing body Merlin. It was crucial because it enabled us to segment the streaming market in detail, when combined with market data from majors and independent artist platforms. The key takeaway was that independents grew fastest, but that not all independents grew at the same rate. Now the 2020 figure is out from Spotify and the trends have accelerated.

The share of Spotify streams accounted for by the majors and Merlin fell four percentage points in 2020 to 78%, down from a high of 85% in 2018. The recorded music market is one in which label market shares typically move at a near glacial pace. In comparison, this shift is nothing short of tectonic. What we are witnessing is not just the emergence of a new pattern of growth in the recorded music business but also the emergence of a new breed of record label.

Firstly, the methodological health warning: this percentage reported by Spotify refers to streams, not revenue, so will have some margin of error as there are certain types of labels that do better among ad supported users than paid, which means their contribution to revenue is less than to streams. Emerging markets such as India (which skew heavily to free users) will also over index. Also, non-Merlin independents will include by inference all record labels that are not majors and that are not Merlin licensed, so this will include big record labels in Korea, Japan, India etc. who in their own markets are the equivalents of majors.

All that said, the shares are still directionally invaluable and provide us with some great market insight. By applying the major labels’ market shares for revenue, coupled with artists direct (i.e. DIY) and independents overall, we can work out what the splits between Merlin, the majors and everyone else are.

The headline is that independents as a whole grew market share in 2020 from 29.7% to 31.1%. In 2018 the figure was 28.3%. That is nearly three whole points of market share gained. To drive such big shifts in market share in a fast growing market like streaming, big revenue growth is needed. The Spotify figures would suggest that majors grew by 14%, Merlin was down by 3%, artists direct were up by 28% and non-Merlin independents were up by 49%. As in 2019, artists direct and non-Merlin independents were the big winners. These two segments represent the new vanguard of streaming-era music strategy, entities that have learned how to use their smaller scale to be agile and play to the unique rhythms of streaming in a way that bigger, more established companies have not. 

Merlin’s dip in streams may well not be reflected in revenues, as Merlin labels tend to over index for premium streams. Even if they were around flat or even slightly positive in revenue terms, the contrast with the newer breed of smaller independent labels is clear. Of course, not all Merlin labels are the same, but the category-level trend suggests that many Merlin labels might be stuck in the difficult middle ground between the agility of newer, smaller labels, and not having the scale of tech, data and catalogue to enjoy the same scale benefits that majors do.

Even with all the caveats considered, the direction of travel is clear: streaming is paving the way for a new breed of independent, one that is gaining share at the expense of both majors and traditional independents.

Last call for the global independent label survey

With 2020 now comfortably behind us and public companies in their earnings cycle, a clear picture is starting to emerge of how the global recorded music market performed. MIDiA is midway through fielding the global independent label survey that will help create the definitive view of how the independent sector fared in 2020 and its contribution to the global market. 

We are fielding the survey now in order to create global market figures over the coming weeks. Getting this done now is important as it is the period when the global view of the market is shaped, particularly among the investor community. 

So, if you are an independent label and you have not yet taken our survey then do so now, by following this link: https://www.surveymonkey.co.uk/r/DCM3VXG

We have had a great response so far and have already collected data accounting for billions of dollars of revenue. All labels that take part in the survey will get the full results and a copy of the final report when it is published, for free.

In addition to the detailed country level market sizing report that will come later in the year, we will be feeding the results into our global market shares report that will be published in the coming weeks. All independent labels that take part in the survey will get a copy of this report for free also.

Once again, the survey link is here: https://www.surveymonkey.co.uk/r/DCM3VXG

If you have any questions please send an email to info@midiaresearch.com

Sony just became (even more of) an independent powerhouse

Sony Music has bought AWAL (and Kobalt Neighbouring Rights) from Kobalt for $430 million. By adding AWAL to its already-booming Orchard division (as well as other distribution companies), it now has leading brands for independent artists as well as independent labels. Sony Music just became one of, if not the, leading global companies for independent music. With a major now being one of the biggest indies, the obvious question is: what does being independent even mean anymore? 

Kobalt has been one of the music industry’s most important change agents with its publishing and label assets helping reframe some of the fundamentals of the business. Since its acquisition of AWAL, Kobalt has nurtured it into a brand that was synonymous with the age of the empowered independent artist and was seen by much of the independent artist community as their natural home. 

Now that AWAL is becoming assimilated into the Sony Music corporate structure, the independent artist community will be wondering whether Sony can keep AWAL’s independent spirit alive. The answer is most likely a qualified ‘yes’. Years after being fully incorporated into Sony, the Orchard continues to be a key force for independent labels. Sony has proven adept at striking a balance between corporate integration and divisional independence. Also, Kobalt had always structured AWAL in a way that more closely resembled a major label than it did an independent. This was reflected in its structure, leadership, strategic thinking, tech and marketing capabilities, and even in many of its more successful artists like Lauv and Rex Orange County (who Sony eventually poached). You could even make the case that what was really independent about AWAL was that it was not part of a major label…

Nevertheless there was, and is, a crucial, company-defining, independent principle: artist ownership of rights. This remains what makes the average AWAL artist different from the average Sony Music artist. But, of course, all of the majors have been betting big on label services too. Which brings us back to the original question: what does being independent actually mean? Is it about not being part of a big corporate structure? Does it mean an artist retaining ownership of their rights? Is it commercial and creative freedom for artists? Is it an ideology of music first, business second? In truth it is probably a mixture of some and all of those things, depending on the individual artist. What is however also true, is that nowadays an artist can be independent with a major label. A dynamic that AWAL just made even more true.

Global independent label survey

MIDiA Research is conducting a major study of independent label revenue in order to create a definitive review of the independent sector’s contribution to the global music market. MIDiA conducted this work for a number of years on behalf of the Worldwide Independent Network and is now independently creating a dataset for 2020. The last WINTel study can be found here. We are calling for all independent labels, of whatever size and geography, to complete our survey which can be found here.

Why this survey is so important

The most common method used to determine the global market share of independents is to take total recorded music revenues from MIDiA or the IFPI and then deduct the revenues of the major labels. This is how the independent sector has been measured for years. However, it under-represents the value of independents because many independent labels are either distributed directly via majors or via one of their wholly owned distribution arms such as the Orchard. This means that independent label revenue appears within major label revenue. Although MIDiA’s figure is higher than the IFPI’s to reflect the latter’s under-reporting of independents, the method still under-represents independents whichever total market figure is used.

The purpose of this survey is to pick up where WINTel left off, to separate out the revenue that is distributed by majors and allocate that directly to the independents, thus revealing the larger, actual independent market share based on ownership of copyright rather than by the company that distributes the revenue.

What is needed from independent labels

The survey asks a number of questions about each record label’s revenue, growth and the distributors it works with. We appreciate that this information is highly sensitive which is why we treat the data with utmost care and confidentiality, just as we did when we fielded the survey on behalf of WINTel.

As with all our previous surveys, all responses will be treated as strictly confidential. No individual responses will ever be shared. Instead, all responses will only ever be aggregated into national and international numbers. The respondent-level data will be stored securely, encrypted in an offline location and will never be shared with any third party whatsoever.

What is in it for independent labels

MIDiA will provide a full summary of the final, aggregated results to all independent labels and distributors that participate in this survey. The final data will present independent label market share data globally and at country level.

In addition, the survey asks respondents about issues such as how the global pandemic has affected their business and how confident they feel about 2021. We will also be providing this data to all respondents, enabling them to benchmark themselves against their peers.

Next steps

We are fielding this survey throughout December and the start of 2021. Once the survey fielding is complete MIDiA will build its market share model using the results of the survey and other inputs such as reported company financials and input from direct conversations with a number of larger independent labels.

As a reminder, at no stage will any label-level data be seen by anyone else other than the MIDiA analysts working on the project and they will not share any of this information with anyone else.

The survey can be found here: https://www.surveymonkey.co.uk/r/DCM3VXG

We look forward to your participation. No independent label is too big or small to take part. If you have any questions regarding this project then email info@midiaresearch.com

COVID-19 hit major labels much harder than it did Spotify

COVID-19 was always going to have a significant impact on the music business, and with the Q2 results for all of the major music companies now in we can start to look at just how big that impact has been so far. Year-on-year (YoY), combined major label recorded music revenues fell by 7.8% on a current currency basis while major publisher revenue fell by 1.6% over the same period (though slow reporting for income such public performance means that the full impact on publishing is yet to be seen). The figures in themselves are disappointing for an industry that has grown acclimatised to growth but the factors driving this are global economic and health policy ones. As we identified back at the start of June, income streams such as physical, public performance and ad supported are all vulnerable to lockdown impact. The only truly resilient revenue source so far is paid subscriptions. The dependency on streaming has never been higher but there are questions here too.

q2 2090 major label streaming music revenues

Major label streaming revenue fell by 0.6% in Q2 2020 compared to the previous quarter. Although it was up YoY by 6.3%, (and even allowing for seasonality), there was already a clear slowdown in growth before COVID-19 kicked it into reverse. When markets mature, the margins between growth and decline are small. So, factors such as the weakening digital ad market pushing down ad-supported revenues can be the difference between being in the red or in the black. The music business is going to have to get used to ad-supported under-performing because advertising is always an early victim of recessions.

Despite all of this gloom, the likelihood is that by the end of the year, there will have been sufficient return to growth in many sectors and regions, meaning global recorded music revenues will be higher in 2020 than 2019 – not by much, but up nonetheless.

However, the streaming slowdown emphasises just how important it is for the industry to establish a series of potential plan Bs to streaming’s plan A, and fast.

spotify revenues compared to major label revenues q2 2020

Q2 2020 wasn’t bad news for everyone in streaming. In fact, Spotify actually increased its revenues both quarter-on-quarter (2.2%) and annually by 13%, i.e. double the rate the majors grew their streaming revenue. The result is that by Q2 2020, Spotify’s total revenue was only 5% smaller than the entire major labels’ streaming revenue combined. All this was despite Spotify’s ad-supported revenue falling by 11%. Spotify’s revenues are slowly but surely becoming uncoupled from that of the majors. Although factors such as timing of revenue recognition and payments to rightsholders will play a role, the key inference is that independents grew faster than majors on Spotify in Q2, continuing the 2019 trend. Although, the term ‘independent’ is becoming progressively less useful as the market internationalizes; in addition to independent labels and artists we are seeing growing impact from regional, non-western ‘majors’ e.g. T-Series, India; Avex, Japan; YG Entertainment, South Korea.

The three key takeaways from all this are:

  1. Streaming revenue growth was already slowing. COVID-19 shows us just how important it is to push new growth drivers
  2. Spotify is already working on its new growth driver (i.e. podcasts) and though the slowdown in the digital ad market will dent momentum, podcasts will further decouple Spotify revenue from that of the majors
  3. The more likely scenario remains that streaming and label revenues will pick up before year end, but if the recession deepens and swathes of millennials lose their jobs, then subscription revenue could be hit, which brings us back to takeaway #1