Take Five (the big five stories and data you need to know) December 9th 2019

Go east: Universal Music launched Red Records, an Asian repertoire joint venture label with AirAsia Group. With Western repertoire accounting for around only a third of all streams in Asian markets, UMG needs local bets to benefit from the Asian opportunity. They’ll be hoping for some BTS-style export successes, too.

Gameloft closure: Pioneering French games company Gameloft closed its UK office, following rumours of a Brisbane closure also. The lesson here is that it is hard to build a games publisher with the sort of longevity that music labels and TV studios have. Not many do so (without getting bought, that is).

Manchester City sponsorship: EPL club Manchester City just signed its first training kit partner Marathonbet for an eight-figure deal. The deal illustrates both how much value lies in top-tier sports leagues and how much betting companies are willing to spend on acquiring customers.

Not buzzing now: Last year MIDiA predicted BuzzFeed would either close or be bought. It is now under threat of strike-off from regulators for being two months late filing accounts. In its prime, BuzzFeed was a pioneer in making digital-first content and – for better or for worse – helped shape today’s digital media landscape. Unfortunately for BuzzFeed, in doing so it taught the world how to compete with it. 

More woe for Saatchi and Saatchi: Another accounting error for the UK ad agency (this time bigger…) sent shares tumbling. The ad agency sector is in crisis phase. Beyond accounting scandals, the whole premise of agency ad buying is challenged by the power of self-serve ad platforms and companies wanting to own their customer data.

Take Five (the big five stories and data you need to know) December 2nd 2019

Bytedance / TikTok split: Bytedance appears to be getting nervy about the impact of Chinese censorship regulation on TikTok, to the extent that it is reportedly mulling spinning off the app as a separate company. This follows negative reactions to the closure of an account of a TikTok user that posted about Uyghurs. TikTok’s value to Bytedance is external to China, so it appears to want to ring-fence it from China. Whether Chinese authorities will permit that is another issue entirely.

Netflix at the movies: Netflix is reopening an iconic, boutique movie theatre in New York. This is all about cultural relevance and credibility. Netflix already does small screenings of some of its movies to be eligible for awards. This enables it to have red-carpet, star-studded premiers which will help its actors, directors and producers feel like they are still in the movie business. Old-world hangover.

Joyn (not a typo): ProSiebenSat.1 and Discovery have added a premium tier to their free OTT service Joyn (which is apparently a combination of ‘joy’ and ‘join’…). Naming quibbles aside, we are going to see more and more video services launching. Consumers will have to spend ever more in order to get all the shows they want to watch. The original streaming promise of replacing expensive pay-TV with a couple of cheap streaming subscriptions is dying on its feet.

Create Music, one to watch: Streaming and independent artists are rewriting the music business. A new(ish) breed of companies is emerging, playing by the new rule book. One to watch in 2020 is Create Music Group, which just signed a global distribution deal with Latin and hip hop label First Order Music.

Piracy is back: Well, maybe. But the principle that piracy could be the big winner of the streaming wars is valid. The more expensive it becomes to stream all the shows you want due to service fragmentation, the more likely people are to start pirating again, and streaming piracy is way harder to deal with than peer-to-peer downloads.

Take Five (the big five stories and data you need to know) November 25th 2019

Disney tidies its streaming stats: Disney is tidying up its streaming subscriber numbers in preparation for reporting the performance so far of Disney+. In the shake-up, ESPN falls from 3.4 million to three million while Hulu goes from a 28.5 million to 29 million. All figures Q3 2019. Headline: Disney is already a streaming powerhouse and is about to become even bigger.

Spotify awards: Spotify is moving into the music awards space. The only surprise is that Spotify didn’t do this sooner; this is the equivalent of MTV moving into the awards space in the 2010s. Spotify will be hoping, probably with good reason, that it will be able to make its awards a bigger deal than YouTube has its YouTube Music Awards.

Tecent’s global gaming empire: Tencent has invested in 40% of Fortnite owner Epic Games and 11.5% in competitor PUBG. By using access to the Chinese market as leverage for getting equity stakes in western games publishers, Tencent is building a global games business. It may even be en route to becoming a global tech major. It has a long way to go, through.

YouTube creators can take a break, perhaps: YouTube CEO Susan Wojcicki claims her company’s analytics can take a break from making content and come back with bigger metrics. The data is likely skewed by a) under-performing channels taking a break, and b) the novelty factor of a returning creator. The underlying truth, however, is that YouTube’s monetisation system skews strongly towards high-volume output. The system needs changing if creators are to genuinely be able to take breaks.

Throw ladders down: Meghan Rapinoe’s acceptance speech for her Woman of the Year award presents a new vision for how those with influence should use their platform for others’ voices, by ‘throwing down ladders’ for others to climb up. She tackles inequality in many forms in her speech and sounds more like an accomplished activist politician than a sports personality. If only all sports people (and politicians) could make contributions like this. Go watch the video.

Take Five (the big five stories and data you need to know) November 18th 2019

Bytedance subscription: Bytedance, parent of TikTok, is reportedly close to launching a music subscription service, initially focused on emerging markets. The big question is whether Bytedance will get the deals to launch something genuinely new, built on TikTok’s foundation, or just end up launching a cookie-cutter “all you can eat” 9.99 service.

Netflix and Nickelodeon team up: Netflix and Viacom’s Nickelodeon have announced a multi-year partnership to create kids shows. This shows two things: 1) Netflix is ensuring its kids offering is up to competing with Disney+, and 2) not all traditional TV companies see Netflix as being the enemy. This is becoming a heavily nuanced market.

Tencent looking for backing: Tencent is reportedly looking for external partners to come in as part of its $3.3 billion acquisition of 10% of UMG. Given Tencent was bullish about going it alone and paying a premium, something feels odd here. Maybe Tencent got spooked by slowing streaming growth in Q3 – something MIDiA said at the start of the year would happen.

Disney streaming woes: Good news for Disney+ with 10 miillion sign ups in 24 hours – that’s more than Apple Music got in weeks after launch. Bad news: it couldn’t cope with the demand, with widespread user complaints.Turns out it is just as hard for a media company to become a tech company as vice versa. There will be broad grins in Netflix towers.

BT keeps Champions League rights: UK telco BT has secured television rights for the European Champions League for another three seasons from 2021. The deal is reported to be worth £1.2 billion ($1.6 billion), with streaming service DAZN missing out in the bidding process. Sports rights remain a highly valued asset, but the bubble will burst at some stage in the next five years or so.

Take Five (the big five stories and data you need to know) November 4th 2019

Music manager shift: A new ‘Managing Expectations’ report from the MMF indicates the role of music managers is transforming. Headline: music managers are doing an ever wider and more complex range of tasks. As artist income streams fragment, the tech and business sophistication of an artist’s manager will become crucial, even more so than now.

Streaming wars heat up, again: Oh, how music could do with streaming wars like video is experiencing. HBO Max is the latest entrant, targeting 90 million subscribers and including new (e.g. anew Game of Thrones spinoff) and old (Friends). It will also only release shows weekly – traditional media company afraid to embrace change? Or savvy recognition that binge watching destroys audience time ROI?

Political ads, decision time: Twitter drew a line in the sand, banning political ads.Facebook got all defensive but made some vaguely positive noises. Meanwhile, Google remained silent. The single biggest political advertiser on Google? The Trump Make America Great AgainCommittee. Facebook’s Sandberg says political ads are only 1% of revenue, not worththe hassle but important for free speech. Regulation may be needed.

Podcast heroes: Netflix is making a podcast spinoff of its teenzombie apocalypse show Daybreak. This is all about brand extension but also lets Netflix test the podcast waters. Do not bet against Netflix becoming a key player in the space. Indeed, the podcast market is going to look a lot more like video subscriptions (fragmentation, exclusives) than it does music. Podcasts will not be a winner-takes-all market.

Tree beast: MrBeast has carved out a distinct YouTube career (26.5 million subscribers) by giving stuff away to people and good causes. Now he is a leading a campaign to plant 20 million trees by 2020 to, one, make a difference and two, show policy makers that Gen Z and young millennials are vested in environmental issues. Jack Dorsey, Elon Musk and others have signed up.

Take Five (the big five stories and data you need to know) October 14th 2019

Fortnite black hole: In what may be the most audacious global games marketing stunt ever, Epic Games killed off Fortnite in Sunday’s end-of-season event, which one million people viewed live on Twitch. The game got sucked into a black hole, with Epic deleting 12,000 Fortnite tweets and all information on its website. Has Fortnite really gone for good? Did Elon Musk delete it? The likelihood is it will be back for chapter two sometime this week.

CDbaby, independent artist boom: Independent artist distributor CDbaby is now collecting $1million a day in revenue for its 750,000 independent artists. Earlier this year, ambitious publishing group Downtown acquired CDbaby’sparent AVL meaning the publisher is also now a top player in the independent artists space. Publishers are reversing into recordings.

Analytics curve ball:Little Big League baseball team Minnesota Twins isusing analytics to revamp its pitching staff, including figuring out which players should be throwing what types of balls. Sports has long been ahead of the performance analytics curve. Lots of lessons for media companies here.

Netflix Italy deal: Netflix has agreed a co-production deal with Italian media giant Mediaset. Under the deal the two companies will co finance seven movies that first will be distributed globally by Netflix then broadcast free-to-air in Italy one year later. Netflix needs to deepen its international content but can’t afford to do it by itself anymore.

Spotify/Apple – regulation storm brewing: It is a case of when, not if, tech majors (Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Facebook) are going to be regulated. The effect could be like when the EU compelled Microsoft to unbundle Windows Media Player in the 2000s, instigating its long-term decline. Spotify’s complaint against Apple is building momentum with US law makers and could be the first step.

Take Five (the big five stories and data you need to know) October 7th 2019

Streaming pricing, emerging questions: Music Business Worldwide raised the question of why streaming is discounted in emerging markets when BMWs and Amazon Echoes are not. There are many layers to this, but the key one is – who is going to pay? High income urban elites can afford Western prices; the mass populous cannot. BMW is targeting thousands, not tens of millions, in India.

Streaming wars heat up: Video streaming competition is unlike music, with big studios launching their own services and thus competing with distribution partners. Disney’s decision to ban Netflix ads hints at just how messy the video streaming wars are going to get.

Air Jordan meets AI meets social commerce: Snapchat, Shopify, Nike and Darkstore teamed up to create an AI/social commerce push for the new Air Jordans. While this is clearly a tightly controlled marketing push, it nonetheless hints at how digital tech mash-ups can push boundaries.  

The Yogababble index:As we approach peak tech, the semi-mystical power of inflated company mission statements is beginning to lose its lustre. Scott Galloway has created his Yogababble index to illustrate the contribution of overzealous comms in peak tech.

The Fall 2019 TV shows to look out for: TV’s biggest ad buyers give their take on which new shows they think will fly. Winners: Mixed-ish, The Unicorn, Prodigal Son. Losers: Carol’s Second Act, Sunnyside.

Take Five (the big five stories and data you need to know) September 30th 2019

Music licensing hubs: Monokromelaunched its Rights Hub, contractual rights and file management platform for rightsholders, while Soundfeed put its label sub-licensing platform into open beta.Fragmented fandom sees streams more widely shared among middle class artists which means more small rightsholders in need of services.

Fortnite – you bot!: Fortniteis adding computer controlledplayers.  The stated rationale is to ensure newer gamers are matched against similar skill opponents. This suggests there aren’t enough new gamers to create enough even matches. Mega-hit free-to-play games franchises burn bright and fast (Angry Birds, Candy Crush, Clash of Clans) but when their time is up, it is up.

We(don’t)Work:Troubled WeWork has parted company with CEO Andy Neumann.The tech-wash veneer has worn off WeWork and investors are seeing it for what it is: an office rental business with huge costs that doesn’t own its buildings.

Netflix, burst balloon: Momentum is everything with tech stocks. Investors want to see perpetual growth and market transformations. Netflix excelled at delivering both, until now. Poor Q2 results, loosing shows and impending competition from Disney, Warner and Apple have wiped off all Netflix’s 2019 peak stock price gain.

NBA, go East: eSports is becoming a great export vehicle for sports leagues. NBA’s eSports league NBA 2k features teams each affiliated to NBA clubs. But now it has just announced a Shanghai addition for 2020. The eSports vs traditional sports dichotomy is false. Instead their futures will be intertwined.

Take Five (the big five stories and data you need to know) September 20th 2019

Amazon, hi-def bet: Amazon has launched its long-slated Amazon Music HD service,delivering lossless FLAC files to a new HD streaming tier. Amazon is betting on its older, higher-income user base to care more about quality than Spotify users. Amazon Prime subscribers are starting to look like digital’s premier target segment. Across its digital music offering, Amazon is now getting to the tipping point between smart segmentation and choice overkill. With HD added into the mix, in markets like the UK Amazon has 10 different digital music products and prices.

Disney+; beat that, Netflix: With its launch edging closer, Disney+ has announced its opening roster.Featuring every Pixar, Marvel and Lucasfilm release in existence, Disney has a movie roster that no other video subscription service can compete with. Given that so much streaming TV consumption is becoming movie-like due to binge watching, Disney has an opportunity to massively eat into Netflix and Amazon time. Netflix’s Reed Hastings isn’t just competing with Fortnite or sleep anymore.

Facebook camera in your living room, anyone? Facebook just announced its range of Portal devices with cameras for video consumption, video calling, AR gaming and more. Facebook is late to the home video game, with Amazon and Apple having made major headway. Nevertheless, Facebook’s biggest challenge remains Facebook. In the post-Cambridge Analytica world, a lot of consumers are going to be cautious at best about having a Facebook spycam in their living rooms. With a company that trades on user data, the question is: ‘Is this your portal to the world, or Facebook’s portal to your world?’

Champions league, social giant: Football body UEFA has just announced some new news for an old event. The summer UEFA Champions League final broke a record of over one billion social media interactions, “cementing its place as the world’s biggest annual sporting event”. The massive and growing global scale of football is clear. Why UEFA took so long to get the stats out, however, is not…

Extinction Rebellion: Friday marked what looks set to be the biggest day of Extinction Rebellion protests yet. This is a global movement that combines technology and grassroots activism to build a movement that transcends generations but speaks for the people of tomorrow. Having already started to shift the conversation from ‘climate change’ to ‘climate crisis’, the decentralised Extinction Rebellion movement is beginning to achieve an irresistible momentum with a message that we all need to hear.

Take Five (the big five stories and data you need to know) – September 16th 2019

Spotify – small step, big step: Spotify has announced that it is acquiring musician marketplace company Soundbetter. Back in July, Spotify halted its artist direct offering. Some quarters viewed that as the end of Spotify’s disruptive label-competitor strategy. We thought differently, and this acquisition confirms it. Being a next-gen label means being so much more than what labels used to do. Spotify is building it from the ground up, starting with artist collaboration.

Apple, half-bundle: While launching new hardware, Apple announced it will be bundling a year of Apple TV+ with new device sales.This feels like it is more about Apple not feeling that it has enough value to expect standalone subscribers yet, and that it expects to be in a stronger place 12-18 months from now. Nevertheless, Apple’s future is bundling. Two to three years from now, expect an all-in-one bundle of everything Apple has to offer, fully integrated into its devices. That’s how to drive up device average revenue per user (ARPU) in a saturated market with slowing replacement cycles.

Apple, SKU skew: Lots of announcements from Apple – including Arcade. The very fact that there were so many (e.g. three iPhones) points to one of Apple’s most important post-Jobs transformations: fragmentation. In the 2000s Apple had a far more concise product line-up than its traditional Consumer Electronic (CE) competitors. Now it has dozens of products and services and looks every bit the traditional CE company. Gone are the days of the simplicity of one iPhone, replaced by a suite of segmented, highly-targeted product SKUs (Stock Keeping Units). Clarity of single purpose is a luxury no longer afforded.

 

Peak tech, sort of: The title of Vox’s peak tech piece turned out to be much more promising than the piece itself(which focuses on what terms companies are using to describe themselves). But there is a bigger story here: we have now reached a stage where a) tech is a meaningless concept – everything is tech, and b) there is the realisation that companies that use tech to maintain networks of services and customers (Uber, WeWork etc.) are highly vulnerable with little in the way of actual assets. If the tech bubble bursts, investors will need somewhere else to put their money.

Space lift – yes, space lift: Years ago, sci-fi author Arthur C Clarke wrote of a tower that would act as an elevator for spacecraft to launch directly from the edge of the Earth’s atmosphere, thus saving the huge thrust energy required to leave the earth’s orbit. It turns out that no known materials would support such a vast structure. Now two astronomers have proposed an alternative – a 225,00 mile long,pencil-thin, zip wire hanging down from the surface of the moon…you couldn’t make it up.