State of the Streaming Nation 3.0: Multi-Paced Growth

MIDiA Research State of the Streaming Nation 3Regular followers of MIDiA will know that one of our flagship releases is our State of the Streaming Nation report. Now into its third year, this report is the definitive assessment of the streaming music market. Featuring 16 data charts, 37 pages and 5,700 words, this year’s edition of the State of the Streaming Nation covers everything from user behaviour, weekly active users of the leading streaming apps, willingness to pay, adoption drivers, revenues, forecasts, subscriber market shares, label market shares, tenure and playlist usage. The consumer data covers the US, Canada, Brazil, Mexico, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Austria and the UK, while the market data and forecasts cover 35 markets. The report includes the report PDF, a full Powerpoint deck and a six sheet Excel file with more than 23,000 data points. This really is everything you need to know about the global streaming market.

The report is immediately available to MIDiA clients and is also now available for purchase from our report store here. And – for a very limited-time offer, until midnight 31stJuly (i.e. Wednesday) the report is discounted by 50% to £2,500. This is a strictly time-limited offer, with the price returning to the standard £5,000 on Thursday.

Below are some details of the report.

The 20,000 Foot View: 2018 was yet another strong year for streaming music growth, with the leading streaming services consolidating their market shares. Consumer adoption continues to grow but as leading markets mature, future growth will depend upon mid-tier markets and later on emerging markets. Disruption continues to echo throughout the market with artists direct making up ground and Spotify spreading its strategic wings. Utilising proprietary supply- and demand-side data, this third edition of MIDiA’s State of the Streaming Nation pulls together all the must-have data on the global streaming market to give you the definitive picture of where streaming is.

Key findings: 

THE MARKET

  • Streaming revenue was up $X billion on 2017 to reach $X billion in 2018 in label trade, representing X% of total recorded music market growth
  • Universal Music consolidated its market-leading role with $X billion, representing X% of all streaming revenue
  • There were X million music subscribers globally in Q4 2018 with Spotify, Apple and Amazon accounting for X% of all subscribers, up from X% in Q4 2015
  • With X% weekly active user (WAU) penetration YouTube dominates streaming audiences, representing X% of all of the WAU music audiences surveyed

CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR

  • X% of consumers stream music for free, peaking at X% in South Korea and dropping to just X% in Japan
  • X% of consumers are music subscribers, peaking in developed streaming markets Sweden (X%) and South Korea (X%)
  • Free streaming penetration is high among those aged 16-19 (X%), 20-24 (X%) and 25-34 (X%) while among those aged 55+ penetration is just X%
  • Podcast penetration is X% with pronounced country-level variation, ranging from just X% in Austria to X% in Sweden

ADOPTION

  • 61% of music subscribers report having become subscribers either via a free trial or a $1 for three months paid trial
  • Costing less than $X is the most-cited adoption driver for music subscriptions at X%
  • Today’s Top Hits and the Global Top 50 claim the joint top spot for Spotify playlists among users, both X%
  • As of Q1 2019 there were X YouTube music videos viewed one billion-plus times, of which X were two billion-plus view videos and X were three billion-plus

OUTLOOK

  • In retail terms global streaming music revenues were $X billion in 2018 in retail terms, up X% on 2017, and will grow to $X billion in 2026
  • There were X million music subscribers in 2018, up from X million in 2017 with Xmillion individual subscriptions

Companies and brands mentioned in this report: Alexa, Amazon Music Unlimited, Amazon Prime Music, Anchor, Anghami, Apple, Apple Music, Beats One, CDBaby, Deezer, Deezer Flow, Echo, Gimlet, Google, Google Play Music, KuGou, Kuwo, Loudr, MelOn, Napster, Netflix, Pandora, Parcast, QQ Music, RapCaviar, Rock Classics, Rock This, Sony Music, Soundcloud, SoundTrap, Spotify, Tencent Music Entertainment, Tidal, Today’s Top Hits, T-Series, Tunecore, Universal Music, Warner Music, YouTube

MIDIA RESEARCH 2018–2026 STREAMING MUSIC FORECASTS

MIDiA has just published its global music forecasts, with revenue and user numbers projected out to 2026 (a list of data items and countries covered are listed at the bottom of this post).

2017 was the last year of strong streaming revenue growth. From 2018 onwards streaming growth will lessen each year, falling from 29% in 2018 to 7% in 2026. The slowdown in revenue growth reflects maturation of developed streaming markets such as the US, UK, Sweden, Netherlands and Australia. Longer term growth will be driven by emerging markets such as Brazil, Mexico and Indiaas well as later adopting major markets Germany and Japan.

midia music forecasts

Even with this slowing rate there is a lot of growth left in the market – so much so, in fact, that the market will grow from $19.6 billion in 2018 (in retail terms) to $45.3 billion in 2026. This means the market will more than double.We also have all of the market numbers in label trade revenue terms, but we are focusing on retail revenues for a crucial reason: the difference between trade revenues and retail revenues will widen between now and 2026. This reflects a number of factors that will see streaming services improve their margins and thus widen the gap on label revenues:

  1. Rising publishing related rates
  2. Increased share of royalty pot going to non-music content
  3. Increased share of royalty pot going to non-label music
  4. Potential long-term future label rate cuts (e.g. relief for price hikes)

The last item won’t happen in the current round of negotiations with rights holders, but at the next round more power will lie with streaming services. Right now, Spotify poses a lot of threat in rightsholder eyes, but its actual power is more limited. Streaming revenues accounted for 51% of label revenues in 2018 and with Spotify accounting for less than half of that, this means that Spotify accounts for less than a quarter of total label revenues. The labels, publishers and right bodies need to maximize their negotiating power now, while they can.

This will change, and when combined with the other three factors, the conclusion is clear: label trade revenues are becoming a progressively less useful way of measuring the future size of the streaming market.

In subscriber terms, at the end of 2018 there were 278 million paid subscribers. However, due to the impact of family plan accounts, unique subscriptions were only 242 million. The 2 biggest streaming markets in 2018 (US and UK) will remain the largest by 2026 while large markets such as Germany and France will also still be large, leading markets. Brazil, India, MENA and China will all be established as top 15 global markets by 2026, with the first four each more than doubling revenue compared to 2018.

MIDiA clients can access the report and full dataset right now here. Clients can also explore the forecastsin our forecasts viewer on our data portal Fuse here.

The report and data are also available for purchase on the MIDiA report store here.

List of data points and markets:

  • Subscription revenue (retail values)
  • Audio Ad supported revenue (retail values)
  • Video Ad supported revenue (retail values)
  • Total Ad supported streaming revenue (retail values)
  • Total streaming revenue (retail values)
  • Downloads revenue (retail values)
  • Total digital revenue (retail values)
  • Physical revenue (retail values)
  • Other revenue (retail values)
  • Total recorded music revenue (retail values)
  • Subscription revenue (label trade values)
  • Audio ad supported revenue (label trade values)
  • Video ad supported revenue (label trade values)
  • Total ad supported streaming revenue (label trade values)
  • Total streaming revenue (label trade values)
  • Downloads revenue (label trade values)
  • Total digital revenue (label trade values)
  • Physical revenue (label trade values)
  • Other revenue (label trade values)
  • Total recorded music (label trade values)
  • Subscribers
  • Subscriptions (unique accounts)
  • Ad supported audio users
  • Ad supported video users
  • Subscriber ARPU (USD) – Retail values
  • Ad supported audio ARPU (USD) – Gross revenues
  • Ad supported video ARPU (USD) – Gross revenues
  • Subscriber ARPU (USD) – Trade values
  • Ad supported audio ARPU (USD) – Trade revenues
  • Ad supported video ARPU (USD) – Trade revenues
  • Audio streams
  • Spotify subscribers
  • Apple Music subscribers

Countries covered

  • US
  • Canada
  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Italy
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Poland
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • UK
  • Other Europe
  • Australia
  • China
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Japan
  • Philippines
  • South Korea
  • Taiwan
  • Thailand
  • Other Asia
  • Argentina
  • Brazil
  • Colombia
  • Mexico
  • Other Latin America
  • Russia
  • Middle East and North Africa

 

  • North America
  • Europe
  • Asia Pacific
  • Latin America
  • Rest of World
  • Global Total

Datasheets included in the Excel document:

  • Global Summary – Retail Values
  • Retail Summary
  • Global Summary – Trade Values
  • Trade Summary
  • User Summary
  • Spotify + Apple
  • Country Summaries – Retail
  • Country Summaries – Trade
  • Top Streaming Markets – Retail Values
  • Subscriber Market Shares
  • Methodology

Introducing MIDiA Research

Today I am very proud to announce the launch of a new research service: MIDiA Research, a research subscription service for media and technology companies, with a core focus on music.   MIDiA Research helps you stay ahead of consumer and technology trends with monthly research, analyst reports, forecasts, consumer data and market insight, all for one annual fee.

home pageMIDiA Research is a new generation of research service with pricing plans to fit all budgets.  We believe that high quality analysis and data should be available to all, not just the biggest companies with the biggest research budgets.  We democratise access for everyone from the early stage start up through to the international powerhouse.  Click here to find out more about our affordable price plans.

We don’t provide run-of-the-mill data narrative, instead we provide unique insight into why trends are occurring, where they will go and how you need to respond.

We have a great new site which you can view here: midiaresearch.com and find out more about us. Clients get access not just to reports but also to original data sets and full presentations. MIDiA Research data includes consumer surveys across the Americas and Europe, global market forecasts, tracking studies and proprietary revenue models.

Some of our launch reports are:

  • Global Music Forecasts 2014 to 2019: The Shift To The Consumption Era
  • The Superstar App Economy: Dissecting the Global App Store Marketplace
  • The Digitally Native Music Consumer: A Digital Native Music Behaviour Deep Dive
  • The Superstar Artist Economy: Artist Income and the Top 1%

You can also download a free report and data set here to get a feel for the quality and depth of research, analysis and data we provide.

We are excited to be at the start of our journey and hope some of you can join us on it!  Should you require any further information or have any questions then please use our ‘Contact Us’ page to get in touch.

Digital Licensing Revenue To Change Future Of European Music Industry

Forrester today announced its latest European Digital Music forecasts.  As part of these, and for what I think is an industry first, we’ve forecasted digital licensing revenue, split by social music and subsidized services.

I’ve posted about the report and forecasts over on the Forrester Consumer Product Strategy blog here